This week we update crop condition ratings, look into weather trends and forecasts, and review export concerns for Corn and Soybeans.

 

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This week’s videos review the current US Crop Conditions, the weather, and we also discuss current levels for December Corn and November Bean futures.

 

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This week’s videos review the USDA Supply and Demand report from Monday, July 12th as well as Crop Conditions, near-term weather trends, and we wrap up with a look at December Corn and November Soybean Futures.

 

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This week we highlight a mixed bag of crop conditions for corn and soybeans. We also focus on the next 2-3 weeks when corn silking will increase, soybeans blooming in this critical time period of mid to late July and finish up with short-term weather trends.

 

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This week we look update USDA crop condition ratings and short-term weather forecasts. We also focus on the potential for price volatility on the June 30th USDA grain stocks and acreage reports.

 

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This week’s videos detail the drought in Brazil affecting their corn crop, as well as planting, weather and pricing trends for the U.S. Corn Crop. We also discuss the planting pace for beans, weather trends, and the pace of the U.S. soybean crush as well as domestic use of soybean meal and oil.

 

Click on the links below to view the reports.

 

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This week we continue to discuss record exports at harvest, review the last harvest progress numbers for 2020 and weather as well as an update on South American crop production and weather.

 

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Grains were little changed over the past week. Active planting progress was offset by the positive influence of stronger outside markets, which are responding to a likely improvement in the devastating affects of the virus.

 

88 percent of US corn is planted and 65 percent of their soybeans are in the ground. Normally they are at 82 and 55 percent now. The Northern Plains are the only area behind, and many acres there could go into the prevent plant program.

 

Large speculators are aggressively selling corn futures again, and hold their second largest short position ever. The only time they were more bearish was last spring. Then planting got delayed, and they covered, causing a 5 week price rise of $1.28. This is unlikely this year.

 

China is buying more soybeans and record amounts of pork. They are building food reserves, and why wouldn’t they, with prices near their lowest levels in 10-15 years. It seems to me that Trump standing up to China has benefited them more than the US has gained.

 

Ontario planting progress has been under the best conditions in many years. Farmers sure appreciate planting into dryer soil conditions. With the recent heat, much of the corn is emerging. Most of the soybeans will likely be planted by the end of May.

 

The weather has allowed the Ontario winter wheat crop to move along quickly, with very few stresses. Yields in areas I travel (which isn’t far though) look to have above average yield potential. Wheat prices have dropped lately, but a fair bit of wheat was contracted at better prices.

 

The Canadian dollar fell hard in March, but has rallied 4.2 cents since the low on March 16. This is not what Ontario needs right now. Basis levels on crops and livestock are taking a hit, and with Chicago prices also in the tank, farm income will suffer.

 

Outside markets have been firm. Crude oil keeps rallying, as demand is slowly picking up. Stock markets have been amazingly strong considering the damage that has been done to the economy. The Nasdaq in the US, which is weighted towards technology, is the leader.

 

All the liquidity that governments around the world are putting into the financial system has to go somewhere. The US is still considered the “safe haven”, so much of that is flowing to US stocks.

 

It is estimated that 85 percent of the wealth in the US stock market is held by 10 percent of the population. This trend has been growing for years, and the pandemic has accelerated it drastically. Somehow it doesn’t seem fair when so many people are hurting right now.

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Grain prices remained lifeless over the past week. Prices are respecting the long term chart support they are sitting at, which unfortunately is near 10 year lows.


Fundamentals aren’t helping to turn this bear market around. Demand has been lost due to Covid 19, and world carry outs are large by historical standards. Now it will come down to US growing conditions.


As of May 17, 80 percent of US corn was planted. This is a bit ahead of the normal pace of 71 percent for that date. 53 percent of the soybeans were in the ground, compared to 38 usual for that date.


Traders know that earlier planting usually translates to higher yields, so that is holding markets down. However, this past weekend saw heavy rains in the heart of the Midwest, so the planting pace will slow this week.


Traders have also learned that “rain makes grain”. This was reinforced the past 2 years, as wet, late springs failed to dampen yields by very much. It will take sustained dryness to get a supply side rally going.


The demand side is showing some life lately. Crude oil is back over $30.00/barrel after the total collapse in late April. That is still very cheap, but at least the trend is in the right direction. Usage is increasing as economies begin to open up.


Ethanol production is picking up somewhat too and stocks are declining. USDA thinks they will use 250 mln bu more for ethanol for the 2020/21 crop than the amount for the current crop, which fell hard so far in 2020.


USDA also expects corn exports to be up 375 mln bu this year and feed use by 350 mln. compared to last year, so USDA is optimistic on demand. However, they predicted a record 15.995 bln bu crop, which would blow away the previous record in 2016.


It is likely, however, that production will not get that high. There is some switching going on from corn to soybeans because of the soy/corn ratio. Yield will be the main factor for price direction. The US hasn’t had a serious, widespread drought since 2012.


The Canadian dollar has been strong lately and is up 3.7 cents from its March low. This is negatively impacting basis. This is the last thing Ontario farmers need right now with Chicago prices as low as they are.

 

Trump today gave details on the $19 billion farm program, with $16 billion of that in direct payments to their farmers because of the low prices. It is very unfair that our government basically only gives lip service to our farmers, especially grain farmers.

 

Farm income in Ontario and Canada will take one it’s largest drops ever in 2020. The playing field is very unlevel with our American competitors. Farm groups are trying their best, but sadly it’s all falling on deaf ears.

 

This, despite the importance of agriculture to everyone and the economy. I suppose there’s just not enough votes in the farming community for the Liberal government to care.

 

Frank Backx.

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Grain prices were mixed over the past week, as they seem to have found an equilibrium. US weather will be the driving force over the next 4 or 5 months.


US farmers planted another 16 percent of their corn and 15 percent of their soybeans last week, to put them well ahead of last year and the average for the 10th of May. 67 and 38 percent of those crops are now in the ground.


USDA released its monthly demand/supply report on May 12. The May instalment always includes the first estimates for new crop, as well as updating the old crop.


US old crop corn carryout (CO) was put at 2.1 bln bu, less than the 2.22 expected. The CO for the 2020/21 crop was put at 3.389 bln, or 61 percent more. This would be the highest since 1988.


Old crop soybeans were pegged at 488 mln bu., less than the 580 expected. The new crop is expected to decline to 430 mln, for a 13 percent decline.


US wheat numbers were in line with expectations. The CO will fall to 909 mln bu, compared to 978 for last year. This would be the lowest since 2014. US wheat is rated 53 percent good/excellent.


World corn and wheat CO’s were well above expectations, while soybeans were less, as USDA expects China to import 7.2 mln mt more what they bought the past year.


Overall, there were no major surprises, so prices didn’t react much. Most traders are aware that USDA is notoriously high in these early estimates. Acres and yield will, as always, change these numbers.


It appears to me that grain prices are near wrung out on the downside. Prices are at long term support on the charts and near their lowest levels in over a decade.

 

Meanwhile, farmer’s cost of production has increased markedly over the past 10 years. Higher yields have contributed to this divergence, and this is a testament to how efficient farmers have become.


Outside markets were quiet also, with more gainers than losers. Most countries are being cautious about opening up their economies too quickly. Hopefully all the sacrifices will have been worth it and the world will get back closer to where it was.

 

Frank Backx

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